It might seem like a paradox: Numerous candidates, a campaign conducted with flair, and for some, implemented with significant financial and organizational resources. And the final result? The leading party is that of abstention (45.52%), which slightly edges out the UMP-UDI list led by Christian Estrosi with 44.98% of the votes.
The two national opposition party lists are far, even very far behind: Marie-Christine Arnautu narrowly beats Patrick Allemand: 15.60% for the FN representative and 15.25% for the candidate from the Socialist Party and the Greens, who experiences a bitter disappointment compared to the 2008 result (-7%).
To within a decimal, Olivier Bettati barely crosses the 10% threshold and will have the opportunity to participate in the second round and, thus, garner a few seats for himself and his running mates in the future municipal assembly, where he can continue his fight against Christian Estrosi and his army of collaborators and supporters, already massively present at all electoral propaganda events. A well-oiled machine, but one that needs to be regularly supplied with rewards.
In line with forecasts, the decent result of Robert Injey’s radical left list, which, despite a friendly and creative campaign, did not manage to break beyond its traditional audience.
Finally, below the psychological threshold and without the possibility (at least from a theoretical standpoint) of merging with other lists, are those of Jacques Peyrat (one campaign too many for the former mayor who would have deserved a more dignified exit from active political life) and Philippe Vardon, whose identity niche confines him to a niche electorate.
Moreover, no revolution was expected from the Promenade des Anglais side, even though some polls, sensationally relayed by the complacent local daily, gave the outgoing mayor, Christian Estrosi, as elected in the first round.
He will ultimately, and quite logically, have to go through a second week. But he can congratulate himself on having achieved a great score: “The best, in the first round, of a candidate in Nice for 31 years,” he proudly announced on Twitter and then to his supporters, reminding them that in 2008 he was voted by 38% of voters.
Now, his stated goal is to have more than 50% of the votes next Sunday against opponents who, in the first round, together tally less than his score.
The only danger could, once again, come from a particularly high abstention rate: The absence of uncertainty could lead even more voters not to go to the polling stations, thereby diminishing the mayor’s victory of the legitimacy of a majority of the votes cast.
Here we go again!
