Punctual as a Swiss train, Frédéric Ganneval returns at each election to enlighten us with an intelligent and balanced reading of the polls that fall upon us at an impressive speed and that, in their eagerness to establish the result before the truth of the polls, risk spreading false considerations and, last but not least, intoxicating us!
According to the Elabe poll, 63% of people registered on the electoral lists say they are absolutely certain to vote, 37% are still undecided.
This average rate varies depending on the candidate.
In its note, Elabe declares: “Emmanuel Macron (23.5%) slightly ahead of Marine
Le Pen (22.5%), followed by François Fillon (20%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18.5%)”
In response to the question, 7% of those polled did not provide answers, so the sample considered is 93%
Extrapolation:
- Macron 23.5% of voters, 68% are sure to vote for this candidate = 14.9%
- Le Pen 22.5%, 89% 18.6%
- Fillon 20.0%, 71% 13.2%
- Mélenchon 18.5%, 63% 10.8%
- Hamon 9.0%, 56% 4.7%
This graph has the advantage of showing that, at the time the poll is published, the candidates have truly secured these voting intentions from voters sure of their choices. However, it also shows that the gaps between candidates are quite narrow, and finally, the vote is not yet cast, leaving a majority of voters still to be convinced.
In statistics, we know there is no significant difference between two candidates if the confidence intervals overlap between minima and maxima:
Le Pen 16.2/ 21.1
Macron 12.6/17.1
Fillon 11.1/15.3
Mélenchon 8.9/12.8
Hamon 3.3/6.1
The result is that there is no significant difference between: Le Pen and Macron / Fillon and Macron / Mélenchon and Fillon / Mélenchon and Macron
Only Hamon is distanced by the other 4 candidates.
Thus, the podiums that can be statistically announced today are:
Le Pen – Macron
Le Pen – Fillon
With 1 point more for Fillon from voters certain to vote for him, he could end up in the second round facing Macron
With 3.5 points more for Mélenchon from voters certain to vote for him, he could end up in the second round facing Le Pen, Macron, or Fillon.
In short, contrary to what the Elabe graph seems to suggest, nothing is settled yet for this first round and all scenarios are conceivable.
Frédéric Ganneval, Artenice
