A recent survey published these days shows that the re-election forecast of the outgoing mayor, Christian Estrosi, appears practically certain, with a strong likelihood that a single round may suffice.
Eric Ciotti’s withdrawal, having acknowledged his inability to compete with his rival (in boxing terminology, a ‘technical KO’) and the “armed peace” between the two, has strengthened Christian Estrosi’s position with the transfer of a portion of the votes from voters who, in the previous survey, had expressed support (24%) for the deputy of the 1st constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes.
The outgoing mayor, previously credited with 39% of voting intentions, now rises to 49/51% (depending on whether there’s an official LREM candidate or not).
Among the opposing lists, Philippe Vardon (RN) holds the second position with 17% and confirms that he will be the “front-runner” against Christian Estrosi in the next mandate… given their personal relations, some exciting battles can be expected!
On the “podium,” in third place, is the “green-eco” ticket Governatori-Chesnel-Le Roux estimated at 12%.
Poor prospects for the left-wing lists, which have abandoned the official designation in favor of a citizen platform: Patrick Allemand’s list stands at 7%, and the “comrades” VIVA! at 5%. If this prediction is confirmed by the official result, both would be excluded from the Municipal Council.
Patrick Allemand, aware of this danger, has launched a citizen initiative (which has garnered a thousand signatures so far) to merge the three lists into one, but for the moment, without any success.
The Green ecologists still find themselves exhilarated by the good results in the European elections in May. Having long played the role of socialist auxiliaries, they now feel capable of presenting themselves to the electorate alone, as adults!
The coalition composed of the PCF, FI, and other associative organizations—aware of their weakness—revels in the government’s struggle over the pension issue, preferring the exhilaration of rallies to the harsh life of opposition within an institutional framework.
To conclude, the situation is confusing among the “marchers” who have not yet taken a stance on the possibility of an official candidacy. Credited with less than 5%, they pay for their unpreparedness (a candidate should have been chosen following the 2017 presidential election, benefiting from Emmanuel Macron’s success dynamic), their weak local roots, and “blockages” due to primacy issues.
So, if by March, the picture remains the same as today—in politics, everything is always possible—the die will be cast.
Christian Estrosi, who will announce his candidacy after the sequence of inaugurations scheduled before the Christmas holidays (“I say what I do and I do what I say” is one of his favorite slogans)—to maximize his institutional position as mayor before having to adopt a reserved stance as a candidate—will then have to assemble his team and write his program for the next mandate.
This will be his most complex and delicate task considering the propensity to “jump on the winner’s bandwagon” (or should we say “get on the bus” in more current terms!).
In this regard, can we hope, when the time comes, for courageous choices with a broad and deep perspective, the moral duty to launch a new generation of public administrators capable of marrying the traditions and values of the “polis” with the vision and capacity to interpret the future in an international context? Indeed, while we must not forget the few kilometers of “locus,” neither should we forget that the “globus” measures about 40,000 kilometers!
