Covid-19, Brexit, and international politics have battered the continent and exacerbated the tensions that have plagued the European Union for years. But these problems are not fading away in 2021.
2021 will see several opportunities to prove it
Elections are set to take place in several member states, notably in Germany and the Netherlands—two influential nations in Brussels. Both countries have strong Eurosceptic populist movements. The AfD is the official opposition in Germany, while in the Netherlands, Geert Wilders—often described as the Dutch Trump—will defend his position as the leader of the largest opposition party.
The fear for Europhiles is not that these extreme parties will come to power, but that they will frighten traditional politicians to the extent that they end up adopting the rhetoric of the populists.
This sensation is nothing new in the Netherlands. In 2020, Rutte also criticized the EU’s spending plans, demanding that the money not be wasted—a rare move for a European liberal.
It’s a pattern that has been repeated in many other EU countries, including France, Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, and Austria.
Even in electoral defeat, populists can still claim political victories.
where should the EU stand on the international stage?
The term “strategic autonomy,” in a vague sense, has been used in Brussels in recent years. In short, it’s the EU’s desire to be more self-reliant in areas such as security, the economy, supply chains, and climate change, to name just a few.
In reality, it’s a straightforward attempt to emerge as one of the three great powers, alongside the United States and China.
China has highlighted its authoritarian policy (Hong Kong, Uyghurs), and the attempt to dominate new technologies. But Brussels cannot afford to become an enemy of the next global superpower.
However, this will become complicated for European countries when Biden demands that Chinese companies are banned or that human rights violations are condemned.
Indeed, the EU’s intention to act independently of the United States has been hammered, as its leaders signed an investment agreement with China that would be unthinkable for any American president.
If a common diplomatic policy was not challenging enough, Brussels’ willingness for a common security and defense policy risks causing even greater division.
2020 was a very difficult year for the EU, there’s no other way to say it. Through arm-twisting, it navigated the cracks of its divisions. It will likely do so again throughout 2021. Whether it has the political will or skill to do so without widening these cracks is an entirely different question.
