Patrick Allemand’s call to form a leftist ‘cartel’ for the 2014 municipal elections is likely to remain a “vox clamantis in deserto.”
However, without the broadest possible alliance, there will be no chance to defeat Christian Estrosi, who will be supported by his party (UMP) and can also activate powerful personal networks.
In the worst case scenario, that of multiple candidacies, one could foresee an elimination in the second round in favor of the far-right or radical right, depending on who their candidate will be. The situation is also unclear between Jacques Peyrat’s Entente Républicaine, Philippe Vardon’s Identitaires, and the FN, which lost the promising Gaël Nofri in favor of a Gollnisch candidacy that ultimately turned out to be a bluff.
The scenario: Patrick Allemand was recently re-elected as the Departmental Secretary of the Socialist Party 06. As the sole candidate running, he achieved a “Bulgarian” score, the most favorable of his five terms. Is it enough to position him as a candidate for the mayor of Nice in 2014? Yes and no.
Yes because, undeniably, the PS (Socialist Party) is the only party in a sociologically right-leaning context that holds the mayoralty of Nice and almost all the communes of the department, especially the most important ones, capable of positioning itself as a true challenger to Christian Estrosi.
And Patrick Allemand, with his multiple mandates: 1st Vice-President of the Regional Council, leader of the Changer d’Ère group in the Municipal Council and the Metropolitan Council, is certainly its most qualified leader.
No, because a consultation, in the form of a primary, of the registered, militants, and sympathizers has become a strategic weapon to give internal democracy some breathing room and great legitimacy to the winner, as well as energizing its electorate.
Beyond the internal situation in the PS (It is assumed that in the event of a primary, General Councilor Marc Concas might try his luck), there are other components of the coalition that will have to express their wishes and decide whether to support a single candidate or go it alone. While the local MRC seems to be a faithful ally, the PRG (Radical Party of the Left), through its departmental president Jean-Christophe Picard, keeps calling for primaries.
And while the Greens (who sit with the socialists in the municipal opposition group Changer d’Ère) remain very cautious, the Communist Party might want to replicate its national policy at the local level, so critical to the point of seeming close to rupture.
The situation is complex, but it should not make the various protagonists forget that the real objective is to choose the candidate with the best chances of winning the 2014 municipal election. Any other attitude should be abandoned in favor of this option.
The chosen candidate must be first and foremost a unifier, capable of playing the role of the challenger against a heavyweight of local and national politics, Christian Estrosi, and dangerous rivals.
For this reason, this choice must gather a large majority, and the lucky one elected should have the profile, not of a party man, but that of a “future” first citizen of the city of Nice.
An open primary would undoubtedly have been the most appropriate choice for the Niçois left in relation to the upcoming electoral deadline. However, the Socialist Party has decided otherwise, but it is well known that the people of Nice do not often let themselves be dictated to by the capital, and a turnaround is always possible in the other capital, that of the Côte d’Azur.
