The painting will only be completed this Sunday, but it can be said that on the eve of the second round of the legislative elections, the French political landscape for the next five years will probably be tinged with a “pink” hue (with some touches of red and small traces of green).
The Socialist Party (PS) will remain the giant of the left and, although it will not have full powers at the Palais Bourbon, its dominance will remain such that it will have altogether easy relationships with its allies.
The Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is the big loser of this 2012 campaign: After losing the presidential election, the right-wing party will also be in the minority in Parliament.
The confused message sent to the voters did not pay off, on the contrary. Which right are we talking about? A Gaullist-social right, or liberal or conservative, or more “muscular,” eyeing the National Front and its “Marinist” version?
It is easy to think that, deprived of all power and with a political line yet to be determined, except of course that of opposing the presidential and parliamentary majority, the UMP will have to rethink its strategy, even its very organization: A single party with a recognized and charismatic leader or a federation of conservative movements or sensibilities?
The battle, easy to foresee, for the party’s leadership will occupy energies over the coming months, and the true/false abandonment of politics by Nicolas Sarkozy is also a big question mark.
The morale of the troops will also need to be rebuilt, as defeats are difficult to digest, along with the power and advantages that accompany them in political action. And after so much time of fine dining, returning to political fast food will not be an easy exercise.
Finally, another observation is necessary. The National Front (FN) is the third party in France. Still brown or turning towards a more navy blue? The new leadership of Marine Le Pen, who is no longer just “the daughter of,” is showing a party with a new face even if it remains openly xenophobic. And it is stronger than ever, its appeal exerted both on voters and on UMP deputies.
The French Communist Party (PCF) has suffered from the strategy of the Left Front and is not certain of obtaining a parliamentary group.
As for the Democratic Movement (Modem), it has demonstrated that the center is doomed to disappear if it stubbornly refuses alliances on the right or the left. The proof lies in the Greens, who are doing well thanks to an agreement with the PS.
