Most of the unresolved issues from 2015 – from the refugee crisis to mass unemployment and terrorism – will persist into this new year. However, the referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership in the EU will overshadow all others.
A “Me-me-me!” mentality often characterized the mindset of Eurosceptics against the European Union and the europhobic outbursts that punctuate it.
Five questions will shape 2016 and determine the future of the European Union.
1) Can hope be restored to the 22.5 million unemployed in the EU, of whom 17.2 million are in the 19 eurozone countries?
While the total number of job seekers rapidly declined in the United States and the United Kingdom in 2015, it decreased very slowly within the eurozone. If only we could accelerate the recovery by creating more jobs and once again raising living standards, we could begin to rebuild confidence in both the EU and globalization as a whole.
2) Can European countries demonstrate that they can work together to manage immigration again with order and dignity?
In 2015, nothing discredited Europe more than the erratic behavior of national governments and the Union in the face of the massive influx of refugees from Syria and other war zones. If they cannot do better in 2016 – by setting up a common border control force and effective management centers and by stopping the squabbling over refugee quotas and their registration – the chances of a new crisis and nationalist go-it-alone approaches will increase.
3) Can European military forces and intelligence services effectively collaborate to monitor the Mediterranean and combat the Islamic State organization?
The numerous tragic disappearances of refugees attempting to cross the Mediterranean on boats chartered by traffickers without coordinated opposition from naval forces, as well as the Paris attacks, highlighted how much information sharing and collaboration among intelligence services within the Schengen free movement area was just an illusion.
4) Will Europe be able to show enough positivity and flexibility to keep the United Kingdom within its fold?
The most devastating argument of those advocating for a “Brexit” will be the notion that the EU is unreformable. This doesn’t mean that fundamental values like freedom of movement should be ignored, but gestures towards reforms and evolution will be indispensable. For if the United Kingdom were to vote to leave the EU, it would have dramatic effects on all forms of cooperation within the Union, and it would boost the National Front in France.
5) Will Europe be able to remain true to its principles regarding Ukraine and Russia?
Let’s face reality: Crimea is now part of Russia, and eastern Ukraine is destined to remain unstable, so why not let Russia redraw the borders? The EU must absolutely not succumb to these siren calls. The EU embodies principles such as the inviolability of sovereign borders and the rejection of the temptation to redraw them by force. If the rule of law is negotiable, then there is no law at all.
