Let’s immediately address the criticism of polls which, as can be verified, are quite reliable, with surprises in recent years being due to last-minute electoral movements and dynamics. Therefore, we have here a probably accurate snapshot, although it will undoubtedly be challenged in the coming months.
That said, today’s figures will lead potential actors to adjust their positions.
- Eric Ciotti, apparently, after some hesitation, will certainly submit his candidacy. Indeed, if he slightly trails in the first round, he becomes the favorite in the second. Consequently, unless he withdraws from politics—which is not the most likely scenario—it seems improbable that he would pass up this opportunity to become the mayor of Nice.
- The influence of La République En Marche is not sufficient to impact the election, whether with its own candidate or by supporting Estrosi (therefore, the Traverso operation falls through…). The party members who do not wish to tie their fate to the incumbent mayor will thus need to change their strategy.
- The absolute stability of the scores of the National Front and the PS allied with the Greens compared to 2014. This leads to a competition… for a purely symbolic bronze medal.
- The left of the left will need to unite if it wants to surpass the crucial 5% threshold to be represented.
Patrick Mottard
