A European army? That’s not happening anytime soon. But in terms of defense, the European Union is starting to shake off its lethargy. Since 2016, it has collectively stated its desire for “strategic autonomy.” This initiative was spurred initially by Russia’s new aggression on the Union’s eastern borders with the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014, but also by threats growing in scale (terrorism, cyberattacks…) and by Donald Trump’s statements threatening to disengage the United States from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) unless the European members of the Alliance shared more of the financial burden of the continent’s defense. For now, this “strategic autonomy” project of the Union is still in its early stages.
On the community level, the European Defense Fund (EDF) project, launched in June 2017, aims to finance the research and development of complex weapon systems at the Union level and has a budget of 600 million euros for preliminary work. However, its funding could rise to 13 billion euros for the 2021-2027 period if the Union’s budget proposal is adopted as it stands after next May’s European Parliament elections.
With or without the United States? Another mechanism, this time between 25 willing governments, is the permanent structured cooperation in defense, launched in December 2017, which includes around thirty projects (training, equipment…). However, these initiatives will only truly materialize if the countries of the European Union agree on the political and strategic objectives they are pursuing. Is it about defending the European territory first, a priority for the Central and Eastern European countries, as well as the Nordic countries, all neighbors of Russia? Or about launching joint operations outside the continent, for example in Africa, as France demands to curb terrorist threats? Above all, what should be the Union’s autonomy from NATO? For many European countries, especially Germany, the Atlantic Alliance, meaning the American firepower, including nuclear, is still considered the best guarantor of their defense. However, in the foreseeable future, the Union will not be capable of providing a comparable assurance. Dispensing with the United States would entail a considerable financial cost. And if confirmed, the departure of the United Kingdom, equipped with the strongest European army alongside France, will complicate the equation of the Union’s “strategic autonomy.”
Y. M., Alternatives économiques
