France’s growth is expected to slow in 2020, after being slightly hindered in 2019 compared to what was initially expected. A slowdown linked to the international macroeconomic situation, which, for now, is uncertain. However, the economic indicators are mostly positive.
The “macroeconomic projections” reveal a very slight slowdown in growth in 2019. The Bank of France forecasts growth for 2019 at 1.3%, against the previously expected 1.4%.
Unemployment is decreasing, however, and should only be 8.5% by the end of 2019, while household consumption is increasing (+1.2%) and inflation is at 1.3%.*
For the Bank of France, 2020 is already shaping up to be a mixed year. The reasons are trade tensions between the United States and China, or between the United States and France… nothing to panic about, however, as France is still expected to experience a growth of 1.1% during the year.
On the unemployment front, the good news is that the downward trend continues: 8.2% unemployment is expected by the end of 2020. And household consumption is expected to increase by 1.5%, mainly due to purchasing power gains related to tax cuts. Inflation will reach 1.1% for the year.
For 2021 and 2022, although the projections are still quite distant, the Bank of France is rather positive. The GDP is expected to increase by 1.3% during these two years. As a result: unemployment decreases, 8.1% in 2021 and 8% in 2022. Household consumption is expected to grow by more than 1% per year, as is inflation.
