Record abstention in the first round of the legislative elections with a turnout rate below 50%: democracy, where are you?
The announced competition between the presidential majority and the left united under the “lider maximo” Mélenchon should, according to provisional estimates from specialized institutes, slightly surpass (a matter of decimals around 25%) the Macronist alliance.
RN (around 19%) and further back LR (above 10%) complete the quartet of winners of this election, which saw the implosion of Eric Zemmour’s party, making a brief appearance in the political landscape and returning to its original role of enlivening televised debates.
Given the electoral system — two-round single-member constituencies — these results are obviously important but not decisive.
It will be important to see, on a case-by-case basis, who will be the “finalists” facing off in the second round, the possible transfer of votes, and the indicators or lack thereof from those excluded.
According to specialized institutes, the presidential coalition is not assured an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which, alongside LR’s strong position in the Senate, will complicate legislative activity significantly.
NUPES will have achieved its goal of positioning itself as the main opponent to President Emmanuel Macron’s action. The radical populism characterizing this group will resonate in the national arena, while its “lider maximo” will spare us his daily one-man show through the press or television.
The Republicans, significantly downsized and now reduced to a minor, if not marginal, role, will face the heavy task of rebuilding by choosing a doctrinal axis that doesn’t repeat Marine Le Pen’s or Eric Zemmour’s theses. Talk of values without explaining them, except via meaningless slogans, has not been the formula rewarded by voters.
Finally, the presidential majority will have to regroup after this first round misstep. While there is no real state of alert for the party, it’s clear that the result of this first round doesn’t live up to its ambitions. There is one week left to make corrections.
