The Insee, in its economic report published on Wednesday, October 6, estimates a 2.7% increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, following three stagnant months and a 1.1% rise from April to June.
With a forecasted increase of 0.5% in the fourth quarter, the GDP is expected to return to its pre-crisis level by the end of the year. For the entire year, growth is projected to be 6.25%, following an 8% recession in 2020.
Driven by a remarkable rise in employment, which exceeds that of the active population, the unemployment rate is expected to be 7.6% by the end of the year. Setting aside the atypical year 2020, one would have to go back to the end of 2008 to find such a low level.
If Insee’s forecast is confirmed, the unemployment rate will have dropped by 1.9 percentage points since the start of the five-year term. To recall, it was still at 9.5% in the second quarter of 2017.
Barring a significant economic reversal, the 7% target set by the Head of State for the end of the five-year term becomes credible again.
