While Nicolas Sarkozy leads the race with more than 37% at the departmental level and nearly 35% in Nice, it is Marine Le Pen’s score, credited with 23% in Alpes-Maritimes as in Nice, that is the major (unpleasant) surprise of this first round of the presidential election in the French Riviera. With 19.21% in the department and 22.36% in Nice, Franรงois Hollande is the third candidate in both cases.
The Cรดte d’Azur was known to lean to the right, but ultimately it will be almost one in four voters who opted for the new icon of the National Front, who, though not achieving a dream-like April 22nd as hoped, could hardly have wished for better. For the National Front candidate, the first battle is won, as evidenced by the various headlines in the national press. There is no doubt that the clash between Nicolas Sarkozy and Franรงois Hollande will be tough, and neither candidate can ignore the 20% of French people who did not choose them by opting for Marine Le Pen.
Now, the second and decisive round begins today with, rest assured, some lively clashes and more or less successful alliances expected in the second round. Both finalists will need to learn to negotiate, and while neither of them will officially “dig into” the National Front camp, they will nevertheless have to be imaginative to win over the new tricolor extremists. On the left, it will be a somewhat easier task for Franรงois Hollande, who should find an ally in Jean-Luc Mรฉlenchon, albeit a weighty ally with over 10% of the vote, who will undoubtedly have his say, known for being verbose on the subject. The case of Franรงois Bayrou remains, who, without reaching the 10% threshold, is perhaps the one with the most potential to capitalize on the presidential chessboard, unless the centrist once again chooses, deliberately, not to make any choice at all. As for the other candidates, naturally the votes from Joly and Arthaud are expected to lean towards Franรงois Hollande, while those from Dupont-Aignan might swing to Nicolas Sarkozy.
Sure, on paper and in the polls, Franรงois Hollande seems headed for a victory, more or less wide, on the evening of May 6th, but… Because as we know well in France, there is often (always?) a ‘but’. And this presidential election, which seemed so dull as it began and just before the first round, could take other turns during this interim period, and it’s unclear whether there will be two, three, or four debates, but what we can easily imagine is that they will be thorough and animated.
Stay tuned…
