The “black swan” of the pandemic is leaving a heavy impact on the main European economies, which are now looking towards the new year. The challenge for 2021 will now be the growth rate.
Although varying in intensity and depth, the recession is very significant and will leave its mark, with the eurozone GDP decreasing by 7.8%. The latest estimates from the European Commission point to a GDP in free fall of 9-10% in Italy, -5.6% in Germany, -12.4% in Spain. And -9.4% in France
Expectations are now all focused on the coming year and in this case too, there are differences among the major economies of the Old Continent.
One of the most relevant variables, alongside the evolution of domestic demand, will be exports and from this perspective, attention is on the upcoming decisions to be made in the United States by the new Biden administration. Could the tariff era of the Trump era be considered definitively over?
In France, GDP is 8 points below pre-crisis levels
According to the latest data published by the National Institute of Statistics, after the -12% recorded in November, the economy is expected to stabilize in December at a value 8 percentage points below its pre-crisis level. Over the whole of 2020, the recession should register -9%.
However, there are lights on the horizon, with a recovery estimated at 6% in 2021, particularly in relation to the arrival of vaccines and the hoped-for gradual easing of restrictive measures. In general, the GDP rebound will still be less strong than it was possible to foresee just a few months ago.
This is the hypothesis of the Bank of France, which sets the growth bar at 5% in 2021. It won’t be until the middle of 2022 that GDP should return to its pre-crisis level. Three months ago, the central bank aimed for a rebound of 7.4% in 2021.
