It will take months, if not years, after the health crisis is resolved to understand the real impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic on the global economy.
The first estimates are emerging, whether for a specific sector, a country, or on a global level. Accurate or inaccurate, overestimated or underestimated, one thing is certain: the coronavirus is going to cause significant damage!
In the case of a global pandemic, the worst-case scenario is possible. In this case, it could be a true catastrophe.
The global GDP would lose 1.1 trillion dollars in 2020 alone, without considering the long-term impact of such a situation. Although the situation is not equivalent to the 2008-2009 crisis, when the global GDP contracted by 2.2% in 2009, it is likely to foresee the worst: a GDP decline of 1.3% in 2020.
The global impact would hinder the ongoing economic recovery in all Western countries, which are only just emerging from the 2008-2009 crisis in terms of growth, which remains nonetheless fragile. Thus, it’s simple: the eurozone and the United States would again fall into recession.
