It is evident that across Europe, social-democratic parties are facing a decline. One of the oldest political doctrines is in crisis.
Practically everywhere in Europe, social-democratic and socialist parties are retreating: since the beginning of the century, their share of votes has decreased, sometimes massively.
Naturally, the reasons for these trends vary by country. But there are also common interpretations of this crisis facing socialists and social democrats. Thus, center-left parties have lost a significant part of their electoral base.
Created in the wake of the 19th-century labor movements, European social democracy enjoyed broad support from the public, on which it could rely. It was based on physical workers, primarily laborers. But these workers are becoming increasingly scarce, and the workforce is fragmented. The groups that supported social democrats for decades have diminished in importance.
Industrial jobs are becoming unnecessary due to technological developments or are being relocated to low-income countries. A conflict arises between well-paid employees and temporary workers, who often perform the same tasks but receive lower wages.
In Germany, the share of traditional workers now represents only a quarter of the working population, compared to half 50 years ago. Exit polls show that the remaining workers no longer vote exclusively for social democrats.
Secondly, over the last two decades, numerous new parties have appeared on the political scene or have made significant progress. Socialist and left-wing populist parties can attract an electorate previously inclined to support social democrats. This has been achieved by Syriza in Greece, the left parties in Portugal and Denmark, and also by the Linkspartei in Germany, which is not only the successor of the East German PDS but also the heir of the West German WASG.
At the same time, far-right parties are tackling issues important to workers — whether it’s the National Front in France, the FPÖ in Austria, Geert Wilders’ party in the Netherlands, or the AfD in Germany.
Thirdly, for some time now, people are no longer voting based on their social status, and they are increasingly distrusting politicians. Many European countries face a rising abstention rate. In Germany, 90% of voters went to the polls in the 1970s. In the 2000s, this rate only reached 70-80%. In France, voter turnout in the second round of legislative elections has fallen to a historically low level. In Greece, the population is also turning its back on politics.
To win back its electorate, tomorrow’s social democracy will need to change little.
