The FN gathered 25% of the votes in the first round, instead of 16% (19% where it was present) in 2011. In 2015, it won 31 cantons, whereas from 1974 to 2012, it had only won 17 (which were smaller).
Everywhere the FN leads municipalities, it wins the canton or, at the very least, the majority in the city it controls. In Béziers and Hénin-Beaumont, the FN even achieved a clean sweep (all the cantons).
Compared to the past, the glass seems full. Even if, contrary to the hopes of the first round, no department fell into the FN’s hands.
Of the 28 cantons won in the second round, three were won in a three-way race, 22 in a duel with the left, and 3 in a duel with the right. It should be noted that, in these two cases, the FN candidate reached nearly 46% in the first round (Béziers 2) and nearly 45% (Villers-Cotterêts), cities additionally held by nationals, and more than 47% in Saint-Dizier.
Against the left, it is possible to win with 35% of the votes, and more than half of the FN winners in the second round obtained less than 42% in the first. It is therefore much easier to win against the left than against the right.
However, the transfers of votes to the FN from the UMP were not good. The “neither-nor” seems to have been listened to. It is true that the FN, which plays comfortably with identity and security issues, tends to overlook these strong themes in favor of an economic discourse, some aspects of which are real deterrents for right-wing voters.
The success of the FN in the departmental elections should not be minimized. Even though it should lead to questioning the strategic line: how to address right-wing voters?
In this regard, opinion studies are clear: there is a great proximity between the UMP and FN voters concerning values, immigration, security, and taxation.
As for the rest, no one believes that tomorrow, everything will be free…
