The latest estimates from the Bank of France highlight that French economic activity in January is still 7% lower compared to the pre-crisis economic situation.
The month of December 2020 was marked by a slight rebound of the French economy. The Christmas shopping period helped reduce the pre-crisis economic activity gap to -7%, compared to economic activity in November 2020, which was 11% lower than in 2019.
Despite this slight improvement in December 2020, mainly due to the reopening of stores for the Christmas and New Year festivities, the Bank of France estimated that the last quarter of 2020 was marked by a 4% decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or a 9% decline over the whole year of 2020.
Thus, the Bank of France estimates that the services sector made the greatest activity jump in December with the reopening of 8,500 businesses. The industrial sector also experienced slight improvement, but the construction sector, already well-revived, remained stable.
However, the economic rebound is unlikely to continue in January 2021. The Bank of France estimates that the economic activity in the services, industry, and construction sectors will stabilize. Activity is therefore expected to remain 7% below the pre-crisis level.
Nevertheless, the Bank of France calls for caution, as these figures can only be simple estimates, given they are subject to the uncertainties of the epidemic’s evolution in the region. However, in the absence of the reopening of certain sectors such as the restaurant industry or winter sports, economic activity risks continuing to stagnate.
