Across the planet, growth seems to be back on track. Three key elements will determine whether or not this trend continues.
For the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, whose impact is comparable to that of the 1929 crisis, the global economy seems to be emerging from crisis: global growth is expected to be 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018, according to the latest IMF forecasts.
American growth remains robust, driven by the innovation of the GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft). China, the world’s second-largest economy since 2012, has seen its growth forecast revised upward to 6.7% (+0.1) this year and 6.4% (+0.2) in 2018, due to a stronger-than-expected level of activity and supply-related reforms.
Forecasts for 2017 have also been revised upward in all countries of the eurozone, where growth in the first quarter of 2017 exceeded expectations. The growth of global trade and industrial production has remained well above the rates of recent years. This renewed growth has helped reduce unemployment to historically low levels in both the United States and the eurozone.
In this context, the economic future, notably that of the eurozone, is now in the hands of what can be termed the “Three Musketeers” of the global economy: Beijing, central banks, and free trade.
The stance of these three global players in the coming months will determine our ability to consolidate global growth and stability.
