Economy: Growth at the highest level since 2018?

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INSEE has once again raised its growth forecast for the year 2017 and hints at a 2018 that could perform quite well and possibly break records.


INSEE initially projected a growth of 1.6% for 2017, but it now expects 1.9%. This is a very optimistic forecast compared to Brussels, which expects only 1.6% growth for France.

If INSEE proves to be correct, the French economy would be doing quite well: France has not seen such growth since 2011, before the full impact of the 2008 global economic crisis hit the country. And itโ€™s not over yet.

To add to this good news on the country’s growth front, INSEE is forecasting a very positive first two quarters in 2018: 0.5% for the first and 0.4% for the second. This allows INSEE to announce as early as December 2017 a growth forecast for 2018 that would be at least 1.7%.

The growth asset is simply the level of growth in case of zero growth in the following quarters until the end of the year. In short: if the growth in the first and second quarters is indeed at the announced level, 0.5% and 0.4%, and the growth from the second and third quarters is zero, then France will have experienced a growth of 1.7% in 2018.

However, it is unlikely that growth will abruptly stop in June 2018 unless a major global event occurs.

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