The Bank of France has revealed its forecasts regarding the growth of the French economy for this year and the next two years. Usually cautious, it surprisingly displays greater optimism.
The Bank of France predicts a growth of 1.2% in 2015, compared to the 1% predicted by the government, which based its annual budget on this figure.
Even better, in 2016, the GDP could grow by 1.8%, and by 1.9% in 2017, still according to the Bank of France (against the 1.5% forecast for these two years by the Ministry of Finance).
As a reminder, in 2014, as in 2013 for that matter, French growth was limited to a very modest +0.4%.
Soon a decrease in unemployment? If the rates estimated by the Bank of France are confirmed, then the famous unemployment curve could start to reverse next year.
Why such growth, if we can say (even if it would still be lower than that of the eurozone)? According to the banking institution, the renewed strength of our economy would be mainly due to “the drop in oil prices,” the “exchange rate” of the euro, the “expansionary monetary policy” led by the European Central Bank, and the “improvement in business margins.”
Regarding the drop in the price of oil per barrel, experts had warned that a barrel at an average price of 60 dollars over an entire year would allow households and businesses to gain 20 billion euros in purchasing power. Yet in April, the average price did not exceed 43 dollars…
It is noteworthy, however, that this is the first time the Bank of France has made annual forecasts public.
