Bercy will send its multi-year stability program to the European Commission this week. The forecasts are significantly different from those presented in the 2018 finance bill.
The Minister of the Economy and the Minister of Public Accounts now anticipate a budget surplus in 2022, with public debt reduced by nearly 8 points compared to the beginning of the term.
• Public Deficit
The year 2017 ended with a better-than-expected deficit at 2.6%. In the finance bill for 2018 presented last September, it was still set at 2.9%. A stronger-than-expected growth largely explains this pleasant surprise.
As a result, Bercy now anticipates a deficit of 2.3% this year (instead of the expected 2.6%). It then expects a regular reduction until the end of the term, thanks to savings made each year – the details of which are not yet known. Thus, according to Bercy, 2022 would end with a budget surplus (of 0.3%). Something not seen since… 1974!
• Debt
The stability program submitted to Brussels provides for a reversal of the curve starting this year. It would drop to 96.4% of GDP in 2018 (after 97% in 2017), before declining by 7.8 points over the term and reaching 89.2% of GDP in 2022.
The executive is therefore revising upward the presidential commitment to reduce the public debt rate by 5 points over the entire term.
