The OECD has released its “economic outlook” for 2016, 15 days after that of the European Commission. The institution is revising almost all of its growth forecasts downwards. Now, global growth will not exceed the 2015 level, which was 3% (compared to the previously envisioned 3.3%). France stands out with only a 0.1% revision, bringing it to 1.2%.
Pessimism for the eurozone?
While Brussels forecasts a 1.7% growth for the eurozone in 2016, the OECD lowers its estimate to 1.4%.
“The slow recovery of the eurozone is an important factor weighing on the global economy’s recovery,” the report emphasizes, lamenting the too-slow start of the Juncker plan to boost investment in Europe.
For example, growth in Germany is significantly revised by the multilateral organization (1.3% instead of the previously estimated 1.8%).
In the United States, GDP growth would no longer reach 2% in 2016, instead of the projected 2.5%. Only China’s forecasts for this year are maintained at 6.5%, and India is the only country to see its growth increase, from 7.3% to 7.4%.
International trade (+2% in 2015), like investments, is weak. Demand is poor, leading to low inflation and inadequate growth in wages and jobs.
“Growth is slowing in many emerging economies while advanced economies are recovering modestly, with low prices depressing commodity-exporting countries,” the report highlights.
