The first revision of global growth for 2016 dampens these hopes: growth forecasts are cut by 0.4% in six months. The World Bank is the first institution to provide growth forecasts for the year 2016 since the beginning of the year.
Unfortunately, they are not good at all. The blame lies with emerging countries, notably China, whose economy is expected to slow to 6.7% growth in 2016, something not seen since 1990.
While the World Bank expected, in June 2015, at the time of its last estimates, global growth of 3.3% for 2016, it has revised its estimates downward: in 2016, growth will only be 2.9%.
This remains more than the 2.4% growth of 2015.
In detail, however, the forecasts are not so bad.
The Eurozone, for example, is expected to experience growth of 1.7% in 2016 compared to 1.5% in 2015.
The United States, on their part, is well on its way to reaching 2.7% growth in 2016… something not seen in 10 years.
The downward revision of growth is thus solely due to emerging countries: the slowdown of China, the world’s second-largest economy, but also the crisis in Russia where GDP fell by 3.7% in 2015 and is expected to decline by another 0.7% in 2016.
Brazil is another dark spot for global growth: after a GDP drop of 3.7% in 2015, the country is expected to continue suffering and see its GDP decline by 2.5% in 2016.
