The new estimate from the Banque de France on the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, unveiled on Tuesday, May 12, 2020, focuses on April 2020, the first and only month of lockdown for the entire French population. Unsurprisingly, the country’s activity was annihilated.
According to this initial estimate from the Banque de France on the country’s activity in April 2020, it was more than a quarter below what it should have been had there not been a global pandemic and widespread lockdown.
Thus, according to the data published by the BdF, which will need to be revised, French activity dropped by 27% in April 2020 compared to the expected activity in a normal April 2020. This drop confirms fears for the French economy, which was already in a recession at the end of the first quarter of 2020.
The 27% decrease in April 2020 adds to the 32% decrease in March 2020 (still compared to forecasts for March 2020 without a pandemic). A historic drop, the largest in France’s history since World War II.
Unfortunately, this is expected to confirm one of the worst scenarios for the country’s economy, which is anticipated to experience a severe recession: the government is forecasting a nearly 8% decrease in growth over one year, a forecast in line with that of the European Commission, which estimates a 8.2% drop in French GDP.
