Economy: toward a recession of more than 8% in 2020?

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The new estimate from the Banque de France on the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, unveiled on Tuesday, May 12, 2020, focuses on April 2020, the first and only month of lockdown for the entire French population. Unsurprisingly, the countryโ€™s activity was annihilated.

According to this initial estimate from the Banque de France on the countryโ€™s activity in April 2020, it was more than a quarter below what it should have been had there not been a global pandemic and widespread lockdown.

Thus, according to the data published by the BdF, which will need to be revised, French activity dropped by 27% in April 2020 compared to the expected activity in a normal April 2020. This drop confirms fears for the French economy, which was already in a recession at the end of the first quarter of 2020.

The 27% decrease in April 2020 adds to the 32% decrease in March 2020 (still compared to forecasts for March 2020 without a pandemic). A historic drop, the largest in Franceโ€™s history since World War II.

Unfortunately, this is expected to confirm one of the worst scenarios for the countryโ€™s economy, which is anticipated to experience a severe recession: the government is forecasting a nearly 8% decrease in growth over one year, a forecast in line with that of the European Commission, which estimates a 8.2% drop in French GDP.

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