The French Economic Observatory (OFCE) predicts that 2016 will be the year of “recovery,” with growth of 1.8%, compared to 1.1% this year (and 2% expected in 2017). A real upturn indeed!
However, Bercy is counting on a GDP increase of only 1.5%. This is the figure on which the 2016 budget plan is based.
Next year, several indicators should return to positive territory. The OFCE is betting on a “revival of household purchasing power,” which would support consumption.
At the same time, households would start investing in real estate again, which should boost the construction sector.
And gradually, unemployment should start to decrease according to the OFCE. The commercial sector is expected to create 238,000 jobs. The unemployment rate would drop from 10% to 9.7% by the end of next year.
But, as there is a caveat, this optimism is based on assumptions that have not yet been confirmed.
All this will only happen if no major financial crisis occurs worldwide, if the price of a barrel of oil does not climb back above 50 dollars (its current price), and if the euro exchange rate remains at 1.05 dollars (compared to 1.13 dollars currently).
