According to an Ifop poll, the far-right would gather as many votes as Emmanuel Macron’s party for the European elections. The potential candidacy of Ségolène Royal could shift the balance.
La République en Marche (LREM) and the Rassemblement National (RN, formerly FN) would achieve similar scores for the May 2019 European elections, with 20% each, according to the Ifop Opinion poll published on November 4.
A power dynamic that would slightly favor the RN in the event of Ségolène Royal’s candidacy as the head of the Socialist Party (PS) (19% versus 21%, respectively). In this scenario, the RN list would gain 4 points compared to a previous survey conducted at the end of August, while the LREM and MoDem list would lose one point.
If the election were to take place now, with Ségolène Royal running for the PS, the RN-LREM leading duo would be ahead of the Republican (LR) list, credited with 13% (-2), and more clearly ahead of La France Insoumise (LFI), which is losing momentum at 11% (-3), according to this survey conducted for La Lettre de l’Expansion.
Next come the Socialist Party (PS) list, at 7.5% (+1.5), the EELV (Europe Ecology The Greens) list led by Yannick Jadot at 7% (-0.5), and the Debout la France list (7%; +0.5). “The Royal effect” would thus be just under 2 points for the PS. Enough to make it the largest score on the left, but still far from the 14% achieved in 2014.
The lists of the Communist Party (led by Ian Brossat), Générations (led by Guillaume Balas), and the UDI (led by Jean-Christophe Lagarde) are all credited with 3%, or slightly less with Ségolène Royal.
