The publication of the survey report by Artenice/Political Science of the UNS has opened a window for reflection on the distortion effects that can occur within the electorate. Therefore, we wanted to revisit this topic with the study’s initiator, Frédéric Ganneval, to whom we asked to tell us more about its results.
Nice Premium: Frédéric Ganneval, how do you analyze the results of your study?
Frédéric Ganneval: This study offers a new perspective on opinion analysis. It sheds light on the reality hidden behind “voting intention” polls. The reality is that polls are presented as predictive and precise oracles without accounting for voters who have made a choice that could still change (20% of the electorate) and those who have no idea and will decide just a few days or hours before the vote (40% of the electorate).
Nice Premium: Why did you conduct this study?
Frédéric Ganneval: Today, we all notice a disenchantment or even a divorce between the French and the political class in general. It is time to evolve the tools… we are moving forward! This study is part of a partnership with the Political Science Department of the University of Nice. The goal of this work is to deconstruct the questionnaires used by traditional institutes to create real tools that will finally give a voice to the voters, question the media, and especially politicians about the political maturity of the electorate and the real issues on which they expect answers. This reminds me, by the way, of “social peace” measurement tools that we have created for large companies, which not only assess employee satisfaction with their hierarchy and the image of their company but also identify pitfalls or weak points that, if not solved, could lead to social conflicts.
Nice Premium: Are others to come?
Frédéric Ganneval: Yes. We wish to continue this partnership with the Political Science Department of the University of Nice and its research team. The work will likely take several months, and at each stage, we will publish very informative results… I hope!
Nice Premium: Have you received any feedback from the candidates?
Frédéric Ganneval: While our previous poll, which questioned voting intentions, elicited reactions, comments in the press, calls to our institute from the majority of politicians, this survey has not (yet) solicited responses from the candidates. Perhaps it is still too early? They should still be concerned, and I hope they will be eager to better understand those who are soon to cast a vote… unless only the “prediction” interests them, which, as a citizen, would dishearten me.
Nice Premium: What causes indecision among respondents?
Frédéric Ganneval: Age. The older one is, the stronger their political culture, and inversely, the younger one is, the weaker their political culture. It is concerning: won’t today’s youth be the elders of tomorrow? If this phenomenon persists, it’s likely that in a few years, as in the United States, voting booths will be placed in supermarkets or penalties imposed on those who don’t vote. Neither scenario is very encouraging! The fight for the right to vote was long and bloody. If voters abandon their duty, what will become of democracy? Besides age, other trends are emerging. We will develop our conclusions in a future report.
Nice Premium: Finally, what would be, according to you, the most correct way to analyze its results?
Frédéric Ganneval: It is the voters who make an election, not predictive polls. So, despite strong trends and regardless of the opinion of the citizens, if they want a Mayor and a municipal council that resembles them, they should go vote!
