Global growth is not expected to exceed 3% in 2019, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The weakest growth in 10 years
Last April, the IMF projected in its spring forecasts a global growth of 3.3% for the year 2019. Ultimately, in its autumn data, the forecasts have been revised downward. According to the institution, it should not exceed 3% for the current year.
This is the weakest pace recorded since the financial crisis of 2009. For next year, the IMF expects a rebound but remains very cautious, particularly regarding the uncertainty that prevails in the global economic situation. The target is 3.4% for 2020.
The IMF is counting on emerging countries
The main causes of this slowdown are attributed to trade tensions that could cost 0.8 percentage points of GDP to global growth in 2020. In addition, there is the rise in tariffs. Only the accommodative monetary policy of the United States has prevented global growth from being 0.5 percentage points lower than it is for 2019 and 2020.
For the IMF, the acceleration will be quite mild. The institution is counting on dynamic activity in emerging countries. Indeed, it is not on Europe, Japan, the United States, or China that we should rely. Their growth dynamics are expected to be hampered. The growth forecast for the eurozone in 2020 is around 1.4%.
