Christian Estrosi leads the first round. Patrick Mottard fails in his attempt to make it to the second round, gathering only about 6.48% of the votes. His votes will be decisive. For now, no agreement has been reached with Patrick Allemand to merge the lists for the second round. Another unknown: where will the first-round abstainers go? Even though Christian Estrosi is ahead by twelve points, everything is still possible until the last voter on March 16 has cast their ballot.
Indeed, this three-way race is not a surprise, but the results are more astonishing, thus disproving the latest polls that had the Secretary of State for Overseas Territories leading by a much wider margin, even predicted to win outright in the first round.
The polls are now history, and from tomorrow, those qualified for the next phase will be hard at work trying to capitalize on the votes acquired this Sunday by trying to convince the electorate of the eliminated candidates, as well as urging the abstainers to turn out this time by choosing their list.
The week will be short for everyone, and while one can imagine what Bruno Della Sudda and Lydia Schenardi will do, the same is not true for Hervé Caël or Patrick Mottard who face a very delicate choice.
Patrick Mottard is currently undecided: “More than 5%, less than 10%. The result of Nice Autrement limits the damage but is far from our expectations. But it’s fair to say that I have no regrets and that, if I had to do it over, I would do it again. These few months of freedom alongside an imaginative, enthusiastic and brotherly team will count more at the time of reckoning than many of my successes.”
What will Jaques Peyrat do?
The outgoing mayor announced on the France 3 set, he will stay in the race for the second round and let the people of Nice decide. But, what will be the real stance of a Jacques Peyrat who has had a good first half and is now in the wake of an opponent whom he has repeatedly vowed to defeat electorally. On one side, Christian Estrosi is compared to a “paper tiger,” on the other, the “socialo-communists” as he calls them, with Patrick Allemand holding a variable bulk of votes depending on the decisions of Patrick Mottard and Hervé Caël. Jacques Peyrat is counting on voters who dislike political parties and might rally around the only candidate in the second round not belonging to any political party. His other hope lies with the abstainers of March 9, those who let the first round pass by and who will make up their minds for the final round. Hervé Caël, spotted in the corridors of France 3, largely ignored by the journalists who followed Christian Estrosi, seemed disheartened and was waiting to meet with his co-candidates to decide on their second-round choice.
What will the Nice left do?
The combined Patrick’s account for more or less 30%. The only question the Nice left is asking itself is whether addition will be possible after a multiplication of divisions. In short, a real mathematical problem with an equation with two unknowns. The two men who opposed each other in the first round will be able to work “Otherwise” to “Change the era”? There are a few days left to see if the hatchet is buried too deeply between the last two contenders for the mayor of Nice. On his blog, Patrick Mottard writes: “We proposed a merger of the lists as the law allows based on the results of the first round. As soon as it was made, the proposition was rejected by Patrick Allemand. It’s a pity because our list, composed of Socialists and MoDem, was somewhat of a preview of what needed to be done to win.” The Nice left has a few days left to unite if it still hopes to win the municipal elections.
