Nice Premium: What was your reaction to the announcement of the second round opposing Ségolène Royal to Nicolas Sarkozy?
Elodie Jomat (PRG): I am delighted with the results of the first round of the presidential election. The French will finally have the essential debate between the right and left that was stolen from them on April 21, 2002. They now have a choice between two fundamentally different societal projects.
Jean-Louis Vidal Revel (UDF): It represents a missed opportunity for France. Moreover, the shock of the first round from the previous election, still fresh in everyone’s mind, boosted massive participation, which is encouraging for democracy. The nature of the vote shows that the electorate favored marked oppositions between two political offers whose apparently different programs have never solved our problems but, on the contrary, have heavily penalized us and our descendants.
Patrick Allemand (PS): Relief, Satisfaction, and Determination. Relief because for weeks, the polling institutes told us we were neck and neck with François BAYROU. Psychologically, April 21, 2002, was still on everyone’s mind. Ségolène ROYAL qualified, and quite distinctly. I am satisfied with Ségolène ROYAL’s score. She achieved a higher score than François MITTERAND in 1981, with a record turnout. Her legitimacy on the left is indisputable. Determination because a presidential election needs to be won, and there is still everything to do. The arithmetic is rather unfavorable, but it’s one of my favorite phrases: “Arithmetic and politics do not always mix well. In politics, 1+1 rarely makes 2.” The momentum remains to be built.
Bruno Della Sudda: Without much surprise this time, it will be a classic left-right opposition second round. But, contrary to appearances, this is not a sign of a return to bipartisanship because, on one hand, more than 40% of the electorate, despite the pressure of the “tactical vote,” chose options other than Sarkozy or Royal, and on the other hand, a significant portion of the votes for Royal does not imply adherence to her project or her party, but rather mainly reflects the desire to prevent another April 21st involving extreme right and far-right conflict.
NP: What other lessons do you draw from these results?
Elodie Jomat (PRG): The excellent score of Ségolène Royal can be partly explained by the dual momentum she managed to create right from the first round by forming a coalition with the Radical Party of the Left and the Citizen’s Movement, and on the other hand, by relying on all citizens through participatory democracy. However, I am struck by the low score of Jean-Marie Le Pen. It shows that Nicolas Sarkozy’s takeover of the National Front (FN) was perfectly successful. All republicans will be concerned to see that the ideology of the far-right is now carried by a candidate who could reach the highest office.
Jean-Louis Vidal Revel (UDF): Only François Bayrou had the courage to stand up against an established system by clearly telling the truth to the French… and the whole truth is not always good to tell because it is easier to dream than to face reality. It is regrettable that the second round did not allow François Bayrou to be present as a real choice would then have been offered to the voters. Sarkozy/Royal, Royal/Sarkozy is merely a game of tag between representatives of worn-out concepts and ideologies.
Patrick Allemand (PS): It’s Nicolas SARKOZY’s very high score. Frankly, I had concerns about the O.P.A he was attempting on LE PEN’s electorate. His narrative was very close to that of the far-right leader. Many in my circle thought that by doing so, he was actually playing into LE PEN’s hands. SARKOZY took a heavy responsibility. He normalized LE PEN’s discourse and emboldened his electorate. His takeover was perfect. In our department, it’s even more caricatural. This is very good for a first round, but is such a discourse likely to unite the French in the second round? I doubt it!
Bruno Della Sudda: 1. On the right, the UMP has already retrieved a significant part of the FN’s electorate; on the left, the Socialist Party fully benefited from the pressure of the “tactical vote,” which serves to mask the crisis in politics and its representation, although this crisis remains very deep. Let us not forget: as indicated by the high turnout, a very positive phenomenon, this crisis does not mean a lack of interest in politics. 2. Regarding the anti-liberal left candidacies, all have suffered greatly from the division sought by the will
