The results of the first round of the left-wing primary, announced on Sunday evening and updated on Monday, January 23, suffer from a serious credibility issue.
While the balance and order of arrival among candidates are not being challenged, the reported voter turnout figure seems more than doubtful, which could cast a shadow over the way this vote was organized.
Simple malfunctions, technical amateurism, or deliberate manipulation?
The results illustrate internal divisions, and not just in the short term, between the supporters of a social democrat, even social-liberal line, represented by Valls, and the advocates of a more left-wing stance, embodied in the primary by Hamon.
The momentum is with Benoît Hamon, because Manuel Valls has few vote reserves, and the second round might transform into a “anything but Valls” scenario.
Arnaud Montebourg, whose political oratory skills seemed greatly diminished during this campaign, could provide significant support to the rebel candidate if the voters follow his voting instructions. Martine Aubry has sensed a whiff of personal revenge against Manuel Valls, whom she can’t stand, and has declared her support for Hamon.
The victory of the former “rebel” would bring smiles to the supporters of Emmanuel Macron, who would seize the opportunity to further assert his positioning.
As for the far-left, we know Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s dreams of seeing himself as the sole candidate of the left…
But the real question is: what will become of the PS after this primary? It is still difficult to say.
First unknown: the rallying behind the candidate who will be nominated on Sunday will be complicated.
Second unknown: the score of this candidate in the presidential election. Before the primary, polls placed the socialist candidate in fifth position behind Marine Le Pen, François Fillon, Emmanuel Macron, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Can the PS implode? It all depends on the result in the presidential election, but also on the dynamics of Macron and Mélenchon.
If they gain momentum, there will not be a clarification but indeed a breakup of the PS.
