According to the latest Légitrack survey by OpinionWay for “Les Echos” and Radio Classique, the abstention rate would reach 45% for the first round of the legislative elections on June 11, which is well above the abstention rate during the previous election in 2012 (42.78%), the highest for legislative elections under the Fifth Republic.
Abstention carries particular importance for legislative elections. Unlike the presidential elections, where only the top two candidates proceed to the second round, one must receive 12.5% of the registered voters’ votes to qualify. Therefore, the lower the turnout, the more valuable the votes of the participating voters become.
In 2012, with a participation rate of 57%, it was necessary to obtain about 22% of the votes cast to advance to the second round. If the participation remains at 55%, it will require 23%.
This small point of difference may seem trivial, but it could be fatal to many candidates betting on hypothetical three-way races.
However, these will be mechanically fewer with low participation.
OpinionWay’s calculations thus estimate about thirty three-way races for the 2017 election. For comparison, there were 46 in the 2012 elections and more than double that in 1997, when the turnout was particularly high (67.9%).
