The Electoral Offer
Overall, there is a decline in the number of candidacies submitted (6,291) compared to the first round in 2017 (7,882) for the 577 seats, that is, 10.9 candidates per seat against 13.7 in 2017. This decline is mainly due to the significant reduction in the number of left-wing candidacies. Indeed, for the first time in legislative elections, the main left-wing forces (La France Insoumise, EELV, PS, and PCF) have united, at the initiative of LFI, to present a single candidate in each constituency as part of a “New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES)”, whereas in 2017, LFI, PS, EELV, and PCF had presented separate candidacies in the vast majority of constituencies.
The presidential majority has come together under the banner “Ensemble!” grouping Renaissance (formerly LREM), Agir, MoDem, Horizons (the new formation by Édouard Philippe), as well as the Radical Party, the Progressive Federation of François Rebsamen (formerly PS), and the Republican Refoundation of Jean-Pierre Chevènement. As in 2017, it is united in nearly all constituencies, with a few dissidents primarily from outgoing deputies not reinvested.
On the right, LR and UDI have made a first-round agreement and are present in all constituencies of metropolitan France. There are a few dissident or independent candidacies, but rather fewer than previously.
The Objectives
The presidential majority hopes to obtain the broadest possible absolute majority of seats so that Emmanuel Macron’s second term can proceed under the best possible conditions. For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, beyond the stated goal of imposing a cohabitation, it is undoubtedly about establishing LFI as the main opposition force by obtaining as many seats as possible and overshadowing the other components of the left. EELV’s sole objective is to secure a parliamentary group, and the PCF aims to preserve its own. The situation of the PS is more complex. Its leadership seeks to both preserve its parliamentary group, potentially increasing it, and fully re-legitimize the PS as a crucial component of the left-wing alliance with the blessing from Mélenchon. LR, which risks losing its position as the main parliamentary opposition, has the sole objective of limiting the damage in terms of seats. RN officially sets relatively high ambitions in terms of seats, aiming to obtain at least 60, but not in terms of majority, having effectively prioritized eliminating competition from Reconquête!. For Éric Zemmour’s party, the aim is to survive by garnering the maximum number of votes to ensure sustainable financing and, if possible, to obtain a few elected representatives.
