The set of measures announced by the President of the Republic would probably have put an end to any typical social mobilization after negotiation. But we are not in that scenario.
At first glance, the demands of the yellow vests are so numerous and disparate that the majority of protesters are likely to stick to their positions and their… roundabouts. The continuation of the crisis will depend on the evolution of what has been the strength of the yellow vests from the beginning: the massive support of public opinion and the approval of “the old world” institutions (parties, unions, local elected officials).
As for public opinion, if it considers the president’s response sufficient, the movement will lose a significant part of its legitimacy. Otherwise, it will be the continuation and even the existence of the five-year term that will be at stake.
For “the old world”, if the massive opposition roughly fractures, notably because the governing parties, which do not (yet) have credible alternatives, fear that the prolongation of the crisis will benefit the extremes, the yellow vests will find themselves isolated or, worse, co-opted. On the other hand, if hostility toward the Jupiterian President continues to unite parties, unions, and local elected officials, all the ingredients for an institutional crisis will be in place.
Frankly, listening to the comments of one and all, nothing is settled. Yet the stakes are significant: an economic-social shift as in 1983 or a regime crisis as in 1958?
by Patrick Mottard
