The American writer Mark Twain, known for his quotations, used to say, “It is difficult to make predictions… especially about the future!!!”.
Upon reading the La Tribune/Ifop survey – published this Friday – we can easily say, with the consent of the same Mark Twain if he were still among us, that there’s no need to make predictions since the result will be clear-cut: with 50% of the voting intentions, and despite the inherent uncertainties of a poll (what matters are the counted ballots during the vote count), Christian Estrosi is practically certain to succeed himself for the 2020-2026 term.
He, more than Mark Twain, should read Niccolo Machiavelli, who in his work “The Prince” wrote “De principatibus novis qui armis propriis et virtute acquiruntur” since, with this third election, he will become, in fact, the “lord” of the city.
In fact, if we take a step back to analyze the result of this survey and set aside the rather bold ambitions of his rival Eric Ciotti, the path is indeed clear for the outgoing mayor who can account for a generally positive record from his previous two terms during which the city has changed a lot, and for the better.
Of course, some achievements may lead to controversial opinions, but how can one deny that Nice (and the increasingly unified metropolitan area) has advanced well and in the right direction according to international standards?
Moreover, as an “independent” candidate, Christian Estrosi accepted only support but not the endorsement of his party, Les Républicains, to highlight his direct relationship with the people of Nice, who as good nationalists (doesn’t the municipal band play “Nissa la bella” after “La Marseillaise”?) seem to have appreciated this display of autonomy.
For the next term, Christian Estrosi presents an ambitious strategy, with a vision, objectives, and priorities. Whether one likes it or not, it is there.
This is not the case for his opponents, who are stuck in a songbird’s critique, sometimes justified, but without a real alternative except for the mere announcement of micro-measures, mostly sensible, which give the impression of addressing the residents of a co-owned property rather than the citizens of a city-metropolis.
Returning to the La Tribune-Ifop survey, following in preferences is the far-right candidate Philippe Vardon, who is personally achieving a notable success, shedding the image of a Nissa Rebela leader to assume that of a national party representative in France’s 5th largest city-metropolis. His current score (17%) suffers from a somewhat outdated political offering (security, anti-Islamism, identity) which peaked after the 2015-2016 attacks.
Additionally, the presence of a right-wing list led by Benoît Kandel (7%) who asserts his identification with a strong right, heir to the electorate that should have been Eric Ciotti’s, creates a diversion.
On the left, the presence of three antagonistic lists does not favor the momentum of a dynamic but maintains the confusion.
The rivalries – even personal ones – between the different candidates make it seem more like an internal left competition than a desire to play on the city’s political board.
The ecological list of Jean-Marc Governatori, who enjoys an undeniable fashion effect (who isn’t green – at least in words – today?) would be the best positioned (13%) and the only one that could maintain itself in a potential second round.
The other two lists, the civic “social-democratic” one by Patrick Allemand (with the support of the Socialist Party) and the “social-nationalist” one by Mrs. Mireille Damiano (inspired by the Communist Party), both at 7%, seriously risk exclusion from the Municipal Council, as a merger with the ecologists in the second round is not among the probable options.
We have neither discussed nor will we discuss the absence to date of an LREM candidate, with two self-nominated candidates having been left in the lurch by national bodies which – moreover – have not yet expressed themselves regarding a potential direct candidacy or alliance or support or abstention. All of this gives an impression of improvisation, of a sketch worthy of an operetta?
Aristotle – who claimed that politics is the most noble thing since it involves governing men – where are you?
At D-30 from the date of the first round, such is the situation. If nothing substantial happens, Christian Estrosi can already prepare the team with which he will govern Nice for the coming years. Having confined his most dangerous rival Eric Ciotti to the outskirts of local politics at the Departmental Council, he can implement the key measures of his program (Eco-Valley, greening, urban planning, culture with the probable inscription to the UNESCO World Heritage and others).
He will be the “lord” of the city… the “baby Médecin” will thus have surpassed the aura of his mentor (minus the judicial mishaps).
Since he won’t have to concern himself too much with his competitors – who will represent a lively opposition (we can already savor the future confrontations with Philippe Vardon) but ineffective within the Municipal Council – we can hope that he will have the means to assemble a renewed and high-quality team (some announced names bode well for a good vintage) with a significant presence of young future executives.
Should we remind him that one of the pressing responsibilities of a public ruling class is to prepare its successors for the role?
