The OECD has lowered its forecasts for 2020 and 2021. Globally, economic growth is at its lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. And the OECD warns: this is not temporary.
The economic war waged by some major powers, notably the USA and China, is weighing on global growth, according to the OECD. In its latest forecasts, published on Thursday, November 21, 2019, the organization announced a growth of 2.9% for 2020 and 3% for 2021… that is, 0.1% less than the forecasts published in September. The concern is strong: “these growth rates are the lowest since the financial crisis,” states the OECD in its report.
The decline in growth is widespread: in the United States, it is expected to be 2.3% in 2019, a decrease of 0.1% compared to what was expected, and fall to 2% in 2020 and 2021. China is not left behind either, with growth falling below 6% in 2020 and 2021. As for France, after a 1.3% GDP growth in 2019, the OECD estimates that the country’s growth will decrease by 0.1% and will settle at 1.2% in 2020 and 2021.
This slowdown in global growth is all the more worrying because the OECD does not expect a reversal of this trend in the short or medium term. On the contrary, it warns governments: “it would be a political mistake to consider these changes as temporary factors that could be addressed by monetary or fiscal policy: they are structural.”
Governments must therefore begin to take this economic situation into account, notably by encouraging long-term investment. Meanwhile, until the effects of incentive policies are felt, we will have to deal with low growth.
