OGC Nice continues to amaze its supporters and observers. After demolishing Valenciennes 5-0, Claude Puel’s men went on to win in Lille without even playing well. They are now 4th, and a victory against Bordeaux on Sunday would confirm what is becoming increasingly evident, as incredible as it may seem: this year, Nice is playing for Europe.
Beyond the 4th place and the impressive streak of more than 2 points per match since late October, the reasons to believe in the Gym’s European destiny do not stem from fleeting excitement. The statistics speak for themselves. Nice players have scored in every match except against Lyon, and they score mostly in the second half (25 out of 33 goals), which is a sign of impeccable physical condition and mental capacity to turn tight games in the last quarter-hour.
A 3rd place with 65 points… or less!
With the progress they have shown over the past three months, the team seems equipped across all lines to stand up to other European contenders. It is said that to have a great season, you need a very good goalkeeper and a striker. With Ospina’s return to his best form and Cvitanitch’s golden period, we have them. After a frustrating start to the season, the defense has provided solidity around Civelli and Pejcinovic, even if they still concede goals against the run of play, like in Lyon and Metz. The midfield is perfectly balanced between recovery, ball circulation, and offensive strikes. Individual satisfactions in this sector are too numerous to list, but special mentions nevertheless go to Digard, Bauthéac, and Eysseric.
And then there’s “Super Dario,” whose legend is already underway, 5 months and 14 goals after his arrival. The 400,000€ he cost president Rivère this summer is almost as talked about as PSG’s petrodollars. And the rare times Cvitanitch rested, 16-year-old Neal Maupay made an impression. And scored goals (2 in only 123 minutes of play).
Another reason for hope: the competitors! Besides PSG and Lyon certainly above the rest this year, the regular contenders for European spots are off their game this season. Lille is evidently at the end of a cycle, as confirmed by Debuchy’s departure; Rennes remains as inconsistent as ever, and the club seems tired of Frédéric Antonetti’s outbursts; Toulouse, by boring its supporters, has ended up boring itself, and although the Montpellier champions have made clear progress, they haven’t entirely digested their title. As for OM, currently holding onto 3rd place, one has the feeling that their good results hang by a thread given their precarious level of play.
Beyond Paris, Lyon, and Marseille, only Bordeaux, Nice’s next opponent, rarely brilliant but very solid, seems capable of maintaining its status this year, at least if its managers decide to recruit a forward in the transfer window. Lorient, a team that most resembles Nice, will likely also challenge with much at stake. Needless to say, there’s a real opportunity here. Last year, 3rd place was decided at 74 points. This year, less than 65 points might suffice (and less than 60 for the Europa League), which with the current momentum is far from unachievable.
The bench and the poor start, the only limitations
The only limitations of the Gym 2012-2013 seem quantitative. Firstly, in terms of points. Those lost due to a lack of automation at the start of the season could weigh heavily in the money-time. In terms of gameplay quality, OGC Nice has nothing to envy of OM, 3rd and currently qualified for the Champions League preliminary round. It might even be the opposite. But the Marseilles team won their first 6 matches while the reds and blacks were drawing games. Catching up 9 points on the Phoceans in the 2nd part of the season while containing other European contenders would be a feat, especially with such a limited squad.
This is the second limitation to the European ambitions Nice supporters are nurturing less and less secretly. Some crucial positions are not doubled. Two or three simultaneous injuries to key players could quickly compromise everything Puel has built. Moreover, Civelli, Kolodziejczak, Digard, and Bauthéac haven’t had much rest since the beginning of the season, precisely because of the lack of solutions on the bench, illustrated by the elimination in the Cup of a B-team against Nancy’s B-team, the lowest-ranked team in Ligue 1. And what would happen if Cvitanitch were unavailable for several games? The emergence of Maupay and Bosetti is excellent news for Nice’s development and the club, but compensating for the absence of the Argentine hitman over a lengthy period could be a heavy burden for two kids with a combined age of 35. The lack of a professional right-back might also count among those details that matter when aiming for the highest level.
Finally, we hope that the interest from more prestigious clubs, which will inevitably materialize for young players who have just emerged, does not disrupt the group’s end of season too much. But this is where Claude Puel’s experience and authority can tip the balance between a merely promising season and one that will be remembered even on our deathbed.
Xavier Garcia
