The predictions were confirmed in the first round of this by-election: a modest voter turnout (23.33%), a clear lead for the young LR candidate, Marine Brenier, who is just a step away from becoming a deputy, confirmation of the National Front as the second local political force, and a residual presence of the left, which is split in two, garnering less than 15% of the votes cast.
Since no candidate secured a majority of the votes, next Sunday, voters will have to return to the polls for a second round between the top two candidates, Marine Brenier and Michel Brutti.
Beyond the result, the question that arises is: how many voters will cast their ballots? Will there be an even lower percentage than this Sunday?
A reflection is necessary: if only a minority of voters express themselves, where does popular sovereignty go? According to the electoral regulations, but democracy is a broader concept. We should even say that it is something entirely different.
The gap between Marine Brenier and her competitor Michel Brutti is larger than expected (17 points), putting Christian Estrosi’s protégé safe from any possible surprise in the second round.
The LR candidate remains focused: @marine brenier: Nearly 48% for this first round, thank you and see you next Sunday to win the victory.
The National Front is experiencing a decline compared to the most recent consultations, but it is true that each election has its own story and one should not generalize too much.
Moreover, with such a low turnout, organizational capacity plays a decisive role, and goodwill is not enough: On this point, the LR, at the local level, face no competition.
The socialists are experiencing their darkest moment and their marginalization is becoming increasingly evident, with the acknowledgment that their electorate is not mobilizing for battles considered lost from the outset.
A determined candidate but without experience or consistency, a modest electoral campaign, and a lack of presence in the upper-country communes pair with the weight of the national situation to explain this debacle.
A bit better for the Left Front candidate who benefited from his position as an opponent to the government’s policy. A meager satisfaction to be honest, but in some cases, it’s always better than nothing.
