In the second round, the two candidates from the two main parties are joined by a third man who will play an essential role in giving victory to one side or the other, as in 1965 with Jean Lecanuet, in 1974 with Jacques Chaban-Delmas, in 1981 with Georges Marchais (the fourth man), in 1988 with Raymond Barre, and in 1995 with Edouard Balladur. Each allowed a favorable transfer of votes to the future president. This year, attention turns to the 18% of voters who supported UDF candidate François Bayrou.
Who are they? That is the essential question of this runoff. Are they traditional right-wing voters concerned by Nicolas Sarkozy’s profile? Are they traditionally left-wing voters who do not find a promising future in Ségolène Royal’s program? Are they definitively Bayrou supporters? It remains to be seen whether Bayrou’s right-leaning voters will be willing to vote for the Socialist Party candidate. The same goes for the left-leaning supporters of the deputy from Béarn. If this is the case, he will have succeeded in his bet to break the left-right divide. Polls will enlighten us, and on May 6, specific answers will come.
Meanwhile, the two candidates still in the race for the Élysée are making blatant overtures to the centrist electorate. Ségolène Royal has appeared with Jacques Delors, the ideal younger prime minister François Bayrou dreamt of. Nicolas Sarkozy, after trying to demonstrate that Bayrou’s project was utopian, now declares himself in favor of a government collaboration between the right, center, and left republican parties—a curious about-face. There will be others by May 6. So many that we will quickly forget this one. Both sides also show a willingness to attract François Bayrou’s supporters to their camp. What will he say? If he supports Ségolène Royal, it will be a mini-revolution representing a new balance of political forces. If he leans towards Nicolas Sarkozy, people will say: “All that for this?” Will he take the risk of supporting neither, risking losing most of his deputies in the Assembly and thus being nearly inactive for five years, reduced to the same marginal role as Olivier Besancenot or Jean Marie Le Pen? The suspense continues…
Since Sunday, the election has fueled conversations in families and at work, as well as in online forums. Generally, the choice is already made, as indicated by polls with a very low rate of undecided voters. Sarkozy’s supporters fiercely criticize Ségolène Royal’s television appearance on Sunday night (“too tense,” “lacking energy”) and wonder what it will be like at major international gatherings where she will need to speak for France. For Royal’s supporters, they simply circulate the manifesto “The Real Sarkozy,” published by the weekly “Marianne,” whose conclusion (“We simply want it to be remembered—after which, we may be held accountable—that we wrote that he represents a tremendous danger to the democracy and Republic we envision”) reveals the tone of this document.
The debate will continue until May 6, and so will the race for Bayrou’s support. It will be interesting to observe this unyielding spectacle, hoping that it doesn’t make a fool of the citizen! France on April 23 is no different from that on April 21. There might be another France on May 6 or on June 17, the date of the legislative runoff that may or may not give a majority to the new President… Stay tuned.
