The left doesn’t quite know that it can’t hope for much in this presidential election.
For socialist supporters who, despite disappointments, will go to vote this Sunday, the choice of a candidate depends on various logics.
In other words, should one vote with the slim hope of making it to the second round of the presidential election, or to rebuild the left for the future?
This is one of the keys to the election: caught between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Socialist Party has a date with its future.
The expected sociology of the primary (majority elderly voters, rather urban and upper middle class) should, logically, support a legitimist vote, more favorable to Valls or, to a lesser extent, Vincent Peillon, who are committed to the social-liberal line.
On the contrary, if Hamon or Montebourg emerges victorious, the attraction forces of Emmanuel Macron could blow up the party, starting with its parliamentary groups.
This is why this primary election for the left is a big leap.
Even so, on the eve of it, no one dare makes any predictions.
To legitimize its primary and its future winner, the Socialist Party needs at least 2 million voters. Conversely, participation below 1.5 million would be the start of a long ordeal.
In 2011, driven by the winds of victory, the primary gathered 2.7 million voters in the first round.
On the other hand, participation below 1.5 million would signal the beginning of a long ordeal.
Polling institutes give a relatively wide range: between 1.9 million and 2.6 million voters.
In this scenario, the Socialist Party will certainly still be far from the success of the right’s primary (4.3 million in the first round) but it will have given itself a bit of breathing space.
