The first half of 2024 marks a significant decline in the French real estate market. The Habitat Real Estate Observatory, chaired by Cyril Messika, highlights the current challenges in the sector with a focus on the Alpes-Maritimes.
The year 2024 will not go down in history. Credit rates are too high, a drop in the number of alienations (the desire to sell real estate, Editor’s note)… The existing market and the new one are particularly affected. This situation, already difficult in 2023, is worsening with the current economic and political tensions. This is according to a report from the Habitat Real Estate Observatory chaired by Cyril Messika presented at the Nice Côte d’Azur Chamber of Commerce.
The existing market is experiencing a decline of (-19%) in sales between the first half of 2023 and 2024. The decrease is even more pronounced over four quarters, with a decline of (-24%). Active households, and especially first-time buyers, face difficulties in obtaining mortgage loans. Housing prices, although slightly down, remain high, averaging €4,766 per square meter.
A slight improvement for new builds and secondary housing
However, certain market segments continue to perform well. The secondary residence market, very popular among retirees and international buyers, remains stable. Executives and higher socio-professional categories (CSP+) with personal capital also support this dynamism. These segments seem less sensitive to credit restrictions.
The new build sector shows improvement compared to 2023, but the situation remains negative for the year. Sales have decreased by -15%, while the supply has fallen by -11% over the past four quarters. High new build prices (€6,656 per square meter), combined with inflation, are deterring buyers. Many prefer to wait for an economic and political stabilization. Active households feel these barriers the most.
Challenges to address in a changing political context
Cyril Messika hopes that the appointment of Valérie Létard, the new Minister of Housing, will provide solutions. “We hope that the proposals made in recent months will receive the attention they deserve and will be followed by action,” notes Cyril Messika. “In the Prime Minister’s speech, Housing seems to have become a genuine national priority again, with Michel Barnier making it the second of his seven emergency points.”
The French real estate market is facing significant challenges. The decline in sales, difficulties in accessing credit, and high prices are hindering transactions. The appointment of a dedicated housing minister offers hope for recovery. However, economic and political stability remains an essential condition for a sustainable sector revival.
