According to a survey* published this Tuesday, a little less than two months before the regional elections, the National Rally list led by Thierry Mariani would come out on top in both the first and second rounds in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur in all scenarios.
In the event of separate lists for La République en Marche and Les Républicains, Thierry Mariani and the RN would lead with 37% of the vote intentions in the first round. The LR-UDI list led by the outgoing president of the PACA Region, Renaud Muselier, would receive 22%, the LREM-MoDem list led by the Secretary of State for Disabled Persons, Sophie Cluzel, would garner 17%, as would the ecologist and left-wing union list (EELV, PS, PCF, Génération.s) led by Jean-Laurent Félizia. Meanwhile, the lists of Marina Mesure (La France Insoumise) and Isabelle Bonnet (Lutte Ouvrière) would respectively gather 5% and 2% of the votes.
In the scenario of a merger of the lists of Renaud Muselier and Sophie Cluzel, Thierry Mariani’s RN list would do even better in the first round with 39% of the vote intentions. The right-wing union list supported by LREM would receive 34% of the votes, the left-wing and ecologist union list would gather 20%, the LFI list 5%, and the LO list 2%.
If Sophie Cluzel’s LREM list withdrew, Renaud Muselier’s list, without the support of La République en Marche, would achieve the same score, with 34% of the vote intentions. The RN list would still be ahead in this scenario, with 38% of the votes. The EELV-PS-PCF-Génération.s list would gain a point to 21%. And the LFI and LO lists would remain at 5% and 2%.
Three scenarios for the second round, with Mariani still leading
In the second round, in the case of a four-way race, Thierry Mariani’s (RN) list would come out on top, with 38%, followed by Renaud Muselier’s right-wing union list with 25%, Jean Laurent Félizia’s EELV-PS-PCF-Génération.s list with 21%, and Sophie Cluzel’s LREM-Modem list with 16%.
In a three-way race RN/right-wing union/left-wing union, if the outgoing LR president’s list of the Region was supported by La République en Marche, the National Rally list would still be in the lead with 40% of the vote intentions, compared to Renaud Muselier’s LR-UDI-MoDem-LREM list (36%) and Jean-Laurent Félizia’s EELV-PS-PCF-Génération.s list (24%).
The same score is announced for the RN (40%) in another three-way race scenario if LREM withdraws, with Renaud Muselier’s LR-UDI-MoDem list reaching one point less at 35%, and Jean-Laurent Félizia’s left-wing union list gaining a point, at 25%.
As a reminder, during the last regional elections in 2015, the RN list led by Marion Maréchal-Le Pen secured 40.55% of the votes in the first round, ahead of Christian Estrosi’s right-wing union list (26.47%) and Christophe Castaner’s left-wing union list (16.59%). In the second round, Christophe Castaner withdrew and called for a republican front, and Christian Estrosi’s right-wing union list won with 54.78% of the votes.
