According to an Ifop survey for Europe 1, I-Télé, and La Provence, the election is anything but certain, but the FN candidate is ahead in the first round.
Nothing is decided yet in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. In this region particularly targeted by the National Front — represented by Marion Maréchal Le Pen — uncertainty looms large, as demonstrated by the exclusive Ifop poll for Europe 1, I-Télé, and La Provence, revealed on Wednesday morning.
Marine Le Pen’s niece may indeed lead in the first round, but she ties with Christian Estrosi in the second.
Estrosi is struggling but catching up. With 34% of the votes cast, the young deputy from Vaucluse would have more than ten points more than Jean-Marie Le Pen in the same region in 2010. This is a sign that momentum seems to be on the side of Marion Maréchal Le Pen, as suggested by the concern among local LR officials.
A national figure, Christian Estrosi is indeed struggling to make his mark in the campaign, yet he is still able to closely follow the youngest member of the Le Pen clan in the first round (32%) and even compete with her equally in the second round (36%). He will also be able to count on the support of Nicolas Sarkozy, who will hold a rally with him in mid-November.
“It’s a two-person race, just like in the North.”
Frédéric Dabi, director of the Opinion Department at Ifop, summarizes this poll in two words: probability and uncertainty. “Barring a miracle, the left will lose this region. Compared to 2010, the total votes for the left block have decreased by 11%!” That is the probability. However, listening to the pollster, it’s hard to predict the winner: “It’s a two-person race, like in the North. Estrosi and Le Pen are separated by only two points in the first round, which means we’re within the margin of error inherent to each poll, and they are tied in the second round.”
“The working world now votes for the FN.” Frédéric Dabi, an opinion specialist, also noted two interesting elements. First, Christian Estrosi “holds up well and is very strong among older people, who traditionally are the ones who vote the most.” As for Marion Maréchal Le Pen, she is well ahead of the mayor of Nice among workers and employees: “the working world, which had voted for Sarkozy in 2007 and turned away somewhat in 2012, is now voting for the FN,” notes Frédéric Dabi.
And the left? Faced with such a tight election, the attitude of Christophe Castaner, the PS list leader, will be closely watched. The deputy from Alpes-de-Haute-Provence is relatively unknown and struggles to make his voice heard against the two media giants. This lack of notoriety reflects in the voting intentions: 18% in the first round and 28% in the second round.
“Left-wing voters hold the key to the election.” But in Paca, “we haven’t really started the campaign yet,” Christophe Castaner tries to reassure himself.
And, he has already set the tone: he has no intention of withdrawing in favor of Christian Estrosi to block the FN.
Frédéric Dabi asserts: “Left-wing voters hold the key to the election. Will they vote PS? Abstain? Or will they, as in the departmental elections, vote strategically to block the FN? The answers to these questions will largely determine the outcome of the election.”
The answer will come on December 13.
