The location was perfectly chosen for its symbolic value: Edmond Mari, mayor of Chateauneuf-Villevieille thanks to the results of the municipal elections (particularly the shift to the right of the Drap town hall) was able to seize the presidency of the Communautés des Paillons, a traditional communist stronghold.
As the goal of the republican right is to repeat the operation on a higher level, on the occasion of the election of the new Senate, next September 28… a bit of superstition is not too much and justifies the 17 turns of the climb up to Contes to reach this eagle’s nest which perfectly synthesizes the enchanting view of the Estérel and the mountain peaks of the Mercantour.
Moreover, Christian Estrosi, at the forefront as President of UMP 06, said unequivocally: @estrosi: Presentation of our list for the senatorial elections in Chateauneuf, a symbol of the reconquest in the municipal elections that we want to bring to the Senate.
To situate the problem, the competition (forgive the sports language) will play out with a few votes to spare: The party’s scientists have done their calculations; the right must maintain its current number of elected officials and gain 6 more at the expense of the socialists and other left-wing forces.
It is certainly possible, even quite probable but far from certain.
First of all, we must succeed in the Alpes-Maritimes (should we remind that this is a departmental district?), where the starting point is 3 outgoing UMP/UDI, 1 various right-wing, and 1 socialist (Marc Daunis, mayor of Valbonne).
For this reason, Christian Estrosi, overseeing the operation, has chosen five well-matched soloists, with a novelty being the reversal of quotas with 3 women and two representatives of (the former) strong sex (the substitutes will be appointed at the return). The female voters will appreciate.
In a subtle apothecary’s balance, we find: 2 outgoing and three new ones, the most important territories represented (except… Antibes), two mayors, two general councillors, one regional councillor. And a logical nod to the UDI, a faithful ally as always.
We certainly can’t say that skills and experiences are lacking!
The goal is declared, but what is the real chance of success for this team that list leader Dominique Estrosi-Sassone will lead, as usual, perfectly, with an iron hand in a velvet glove. Out of 2,031 grand electors, about 1,300 are secured, which, depending on the voting system (proportional with the average), would ensure 3 elected.
For the remaining two seats, there are good chances of success for a fourth while the last position will be played in the final sprint depending on the distribution of votes among the various candidates from the right, various right, left and various left who will remain in the race.
This forecast, which has its logic, is reinforced by the planned relay in 2017 between the mayors of Cagnes and Mandelieu, a sign of well-founded caution.
Moreover, there are still question marks before making a more in-depth prognosis: How many parallel or dissident lists will be presented on the right?
The former mayor of Grasse and outgoing senator (not reinstated by his party) Jean-Pierre Leleux announced his own (“The senatorial list that I will lead will not be ‘dissident’ but ‘complementary’. It will offer a broader choice to the grand electors”), predicting cordial exchanges between former allies.
Then, a possible candidacy of Nice’s Olivier Bettati, supported by another Copéist Michèle Tabarot, number 2 of the departmental UMP but on very bad terms with Christian Estrosi and Eric Ciotti, is mentioned.
On the left, the socialists will put all their chances to keep Marc Daunis’s seat, Vice-president of CASA, who surely has his connections in this territory and is known for his collaborative relationship with Jean-Paul Leonetti, the mayor of Antibes. But what will be the vote transfer of the communists, who have no chance of electing one of their candidates (but will they present a list?) but who are in a position to influence the result.
Finally, where will the votes from the Frontists, who emerged stronger from the municipal elections, and those from the dissident group in the Nice municipal council go?
So many uncertainties…
And then, as Christian Estrosi put it well, “an election campaign is an election campaign,” especially when it is not in the context of universal suffrage.
The candidates have in front of them grand electors… It’s what the Americans call “one-to-one.”
It’s on, the hand-to-hand combat can begin!
