The floor is given to Frédéric Ganneval from Artenice. Why a survey? “Quite simply to see if the elections were already decided and measure the share of undecided voters. We became concerned, along with the IEP of Nice, after the Sofres survey. The results showed that the election was already a done deal. We thought: ‘Here we go again! This has to stop and we need clearer visibility.’ Only the figures obtained by the candidates were released in the media. The survey contained more information. (See [Artenice](https://www.artenice.com/fr/news.php?id=00023)) The 600 respondents had to answer a series of questions. One on Jacques Peyrat’s record with a degree of satisfaction, another on the key areas of the election and the values represented by the candidates, finally Artenice asked who, in the Niçois political landscape, best embodied these values and if they were ready to vote for him. The figures that appeared in the media are the results of this last question. The other data from the study were sidestepped. It turns out, among other things, that 79% of Niçois people want to be more informed before deciding, that 56% are waiting for the candidates’ programs, 19% will consult the candidates’ websites to decide, 48% will get information from Nice Matin, 48% from television, 21% from the radio, and 11% from the Métro daily.
Frédéric Ganneval and Artenice conducted their first and only survey on the Nice municipal elections: “First of all for economic reasons. This is an expensive exercise.” This survey was conducted independently, and no media or political party financed it. The Niçois company was mishandled: “We were attacked on all sides.” But it does not regret having animated the municipal debate and having shaken the local political scene: “We have activities in Paris, Europe, and the United States. At worst, we will lose those in Nice, which only represent about 20%. We are not the small company ‘lacking authority in polling’ as Christian Estrosi presented us. We were the only institute in 2002 to announce a narrowing of voting intentions between Jean Marie Le Pen and Lionel Jospin. Last year, we predicted, before anyone else, François Bayrou’s breakthrough.” For a week, after publishing a right of reply in Nice Matin, Artenice has been trying to set certain truths straight.
Polls as a snapshot of a moment
The accused defends themselves. They respond to each accusation point by point.
How to explain Jacques Peyrat’s rise in the polls? Answer: “It is a phenomenon of compassion. By consistently attacking him, the electorate feels compassion for him. Furthermore, he has already served two terms. This means that a large number of Niçois people have voted for him in the past and may be ready to do so again.” (45% find Jacques Peyrat’s record positive.)
Why is the left so low (less than 20%), historically the lowest percentage in Nice? Answer: “Has there previously been a situation with two leading candidates on the right? On one side, you have Christian Estrosi, representing the UMP, Secretary of State, President of the General Council, powerful, known, and appreciated, and on the other side Jacques Peyrat, who is completing his second term and is supported by a large part of the population. It is therefore normal that the two ‘Patricks’, on the left, see their combined score below the figure usually obtained.”
Polls are just a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. It evolves according to events, speeches, and programs. It is not fixed. And fortunately! The only truth is the one inscribed on the ballot that Niçois citizens will slip into the ballot box. Until then, analyses, polls, interpretations of poll analyses, and polls on interpretations of analyses will continue as a gadget or a bad habit. Politicians who criticize polls are the first to use them to guide their programs, highlight one project over another. The UMP conducted one that was published in Nice Matin. Patrick Allemand, who initially refused, is now considering conducting one. There is no doubt that Jacques Peyrat and Patrick Mottard are watching the opinion studies. Criticism is always easy…
