The earth swaps the hard. Slides are set to replace serve-and-volley plays. It’s time for the maestros, spins, drop shots, and court watering. From Casablanca this week to Roland Garros starting May 24, the “heavyweights” will be watched, scrutinized, observed non-stop. Will the Monte Carlo Masters, starting Sunday, finally find a successor to Cédric Pioline, the last French winner in 2000? On their home turf, will Verdasco and Ferrer confirm their good start to the season in Barcelona (April 12) and Madrid (May 10)? In Rome (April 27), will Juan-Carlos Ferrero be able to pull off the same feat as last year? Because the main question is there. The Spanish veteran is the last player to have dominated Rafael Nadal, the undisputed master of clay.
114. A good bowling score indeed, but more importantly, a monstrous number. Since April 2005 and a defeat against Igor Andreev in Valencia, Rafael Nadal has won 114 out of 116 matches, even stringing together a historic streak of 81 consecutive victories, stopped by Roger Federer in May 2007 in Hamburg. Still undefeated at Roland Garros since his first entry in 2005—and his first of four titles—the Mallorcan is unstoppable on “his” surface. With a fifth consecutive victory, Nadal would add a new line in the Guinness Book of Records, thus crushing Björn Borg’s previous record.
Only a Roger Federer, at the top of his game, could deny him this. In search of his first victory on the Parisian clay, the Swiss has had a decent start to the season, though not exceptional. Still silent since the tournament in Basel last October, but a finalist at Roland Garros in the last three editions, Federer will certainly make a point to avenge last year’s humiliation (6-1, 6-3, 6-0).
Could the “anti-Nadal” solution otherwise come from Andy Murray? Huge since the start of the season (26 wins-2 losses), the physically top-fit Briton, winner in Doha, Rotterdam, and last Sunday at the Miami Masters, must yet confirm on a surface where he has not shone in the past. But the 21-year-old Scot, world number 4, has nothing to lose, unlike Novak Djokovic. With 2800 points to defend during this clay season, the Serb may worry. Dominated by Murray in Florida in the final, lacking confidence, troubled by some physical issues, and still bothered—according to him—by his change of racket, he will have his work cut out to maintain his spot on the podium.
Could there be a French winner at Roland? Unless the French settle the matter themselves. Great hopes and smooth talkers at the start of the season, the four “ex-future” musketeers are struggling to sustain. “Winning a grand slam” was their common ambition. But only Jo-Wilfried Tsonga confirms since last month. The only Frenchman in the quarter-finals (at Miami) in the last two American Masters, the Le Mans-born player withdrew from Monte Carlo, preferring to preserve himself physically for future tournaments and Roland Garros. Gael Monfils, a semi-finalist last season, can create a sensation. On clay, “sliceman” is comfortable.
The question mainly concerns Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet. Winner in Casablanca last year, Simon doesn’t have many other references on this surface. Gasquet, on the other hand, accumulates minor injuries. Unless the solution and surprise come from Paul-Henri Mathieu or, why not, Jérémy Chardy. A blue clay would be quite a sight.
Romain Schue
