“Bé dar migam di var Beshnavé”: “I speak to the doors so the walls can hear” recites a very popular expression used daily in Iran. President Ahmadinejad, for his part, no longer seems to hear the messages indirectly addressed to him by the highest dignitaries of the Iranian clergy. Perhaps he exclusively receives the echoes of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, who recently asserted “that only the enemies of Iran consider the situation to be abnormal”?
Yet the opposite is happening: a spectacular accumulation of events that tend to place Iran at the heart of an upcoming major crisis. And the commandeering of a British boat in the controversial territorial waters of the Shatt al-Arab and the detention of its sailors are not the least of these developments. From the former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani to General Safavi, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, through the highest dignitaries of the Iranian clergy, including Ayatollah Saanei, public expressions of concern and warnings are increasing. During a recent “Namaz Djomeh”, the Friday prayer ceremony at Qom, Youssef Saanei publicly criticized the “incompetences” of the Iranian President, admitting sotto voce the implicit dangers they pose to the entire regime. The religious figure from Qom notably criticized Ahmadinejad’s attacks on the Holocaust. “The Holocaust is history,” explained Saanei. “Are we going to change the history of nations?” The Iranian President directly responded during the interview conducted on March 22 on France 2. Asked by the journalist about his intention to “wipe Israel off the map,” Ahmadinejad simply explained: “Where is the Soviet Union? It has disappeared, hasn’t it?”
The new UN Security Council resolution, adopted unanimously, provides for strengthening sanctions against the Islamic Republic. As usual, the Russian and Chinese representatives have made numerous ameliorations to not overly discourage a favored trading partner. But the ban on Iran exporting arms—with the possible repercussions for Lebanese Hezbollah—and the freezing of assets of 28 entities and individuals linked to the nuclear program significantly increase the pressures on Tehran and on its international trade relations. During his trip to Syria on March 15, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Javier Solana, also reminded President Bashar El Assad that his country belongs to the Arab world, not to that of “Persia.” This was a barely veiled allusion to more inconveniences than advantages that, according to the EU envoy, the steadfast alliance of Damascus with Tehran entails. If this is not an attempt at isolating Iran, it strongly resembles one.
The mysterious defection in Turkey of a former Pasdaran official, an attack on the Iranian President’s convoy during a visit to the provinces, massive loss of support in the last municipal elections, rumors—denied by Moscow—of tension between Russia and Iran on cooperation at the Bushehr nuclear plant, a notable increase in prices and the number of drug addicts recognized by the regime, are all symptomatic signs that should alert the Iranian President to his various missteps. And on the urgent need to change course. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad should not forget that he remains but a layman in the land of “Velayat-e faqih,” the absolute power of the religious.
