The earth has trembled several days in a row in the land of the Cedars. But it is the political tremors with multiple epicenters that are truly worrying the Lebanese. The most recent aftershock: the elimination of Imad Moughniyeh in Damascus, under mysterious circumstances. The fiery diatribes by Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, match the level of responsibility that fell upon this key man, politically influential within the Party of God, mastermind of multiple military operations, and liaison officer between Tehran, Damascus, and Haret Hreik, the Hezbollah stronghold in the suburbs of Beirut. This also explains the vehemence of the protests and calls for revenge issued, together for once, by the spiritual leader Ali Khamenei and the current chairman of the Expediency Council Hashemi Rafsanjani, although a rival of President Ahmadinejad. Always aware of the political subtleties in the country, had the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt not himself on several occasions referred to Hassan Nasrallah as the “dolphin of Imad Moughniyeh”?
Despite the rumors circulating about the death of this military leader, it is appropriate to dismiss the hypothesis of an implicit “deal” between Syrians and Americans for at least two reasons: Damascus has not yet moved sufficiently close to Washington to accept — with what counteroffer? — the loss of such a sensitive figure on its territory. Moreover, the American elections temporarily freeze any process of rapprochement between the two countries. We must also take into account the realities: Moughniyeh was on the list of wanted individuals in more than twenty states, and the $5 million bounty on his head undoubtedly helped to “sensitize” the venality of many Syrian agents, a phenomenon well known to Western intelligence services. In these conditions, the official Israeli denial can only add to the confusion of their worst enemy and amplify the scent of a symbolic victory for Mossad after the serious setback suffered by the IDF in Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
In anticipation of retaliations that might target Latin America, as there are “numerous,” according to intelligence experts, “Hezbollah sleeper cells in this geographic area,” two names from southern Lebanon are already mentioned to replace Imad Moughniyeh: Hassan Ezzedine and Ali Attoué. This speaks volumes about the degree of organization and preparedness of the Party of God.
The internal situation in Lebanon is not much better: the high level of verbal tension reveals a subtle game – “folklore” for many young Lebanese who feel dispossessed of “their revolution” – where the protagonists strive by this means to keep their troops mobilized while avoiding potential confrontations on the ground that could degenerate into civil conflict. The funerals organized by Hezbollah precisely started as hundreds of thousands of people dispersed, despite the pouring rain, at the call of the anti-Syrian majority forces of March 14. Nevertheless, the threats that already weighed on the UNIFIL soldiers, now target the official representatives of the UN in Beirut. As a consequence, the move of the ESCWA to new premises in a more protected Christian area of Broumana, outside the capital.
As for the presidential election process, seemingly at a standstill, one might think that the designation of Commander-in-Chief Michel Sleiman already belongs to the past. On the sidelines of the upcoming Summit, which will have “Arab” in name only as much as rivalries should prevail over convergences, a Franco-Qatari-Syrian tripartite initiative might resurface. Frozen due to the internal French debate provoked by Bernard Kouchner’s interview with the New York Times, which blamed the failure of French diplomacy on the interference of the Élysée, this solution would attempt to reconcile Syrian and Saudi viewpoints, essential for reaching a compromise. It would also involve Qatar, a steadfast supporter of General Aoun. A move that bets on the always problematic loyalty of Syria. Again, two names, albeit old ones, are coming back in the discussions: former Minister of Foreign Affairs Farez Boueiz and the current Governor of the Central Bank Riad Salamé. It remains to be seen if the convulsions, both tectonic and political, in Lebanon will not spoil the efforts aimed at rebuilding a terribly devastated Lebanese presidential building.
