A clear… and unexpected victory. The initial results of the Lebanese legislative elections confirmed a comfortable lead (71 seats claimed out of 128) for the pro-Western March 14 coalition. While very close results were anticipated, and both Shiites and Sunnis were confident in their reelection due to a sectarian distribution of seats, the real uncertainty was about the Christian vote: the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, allied with the son of the assassinated former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, were opposed by supporters of General Aoun. After 15 years of exile dedicated to fighting Syrian presence, on his return to Lebanon, he shocked — and sometimes confused his own ranks — by joining a coalition centered around Hezbollah militants and the Shiite Amal movement close to Damascus and led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. It seems that Christian voters close to General Aoun penalized this “unnatural” alliance, specifically marked by the signing of a “memorandum of understanding” with the leaders of the Shiite militia in 2005.
Less spectacular than what was announced at the very beginning of the vote counting process, this victory is attributed to the thousands of Lebanese who came especially from abroad to participate massively in the voting operations, a tactic that was, however, widely adopted with campaign budgets amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars by the two main formations. It also resulted from a strategy — apparently successful — adopted by the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb: unlike the well-established tradition in the country of clannish and extremely personalized voting, their slogan deliberately emphasized an election portrayed as a referendum at the heart of which lay the issue of Hezbollah’s politics and arms. It is also likely that American statements, the most explicit ones, like those of the visiting U.S. Vice President to Lebanon and Barack Obama’s latest speech in Cairo, may have played against the radical positions defended by the March 8 Forces, firmly part of the Syrian-Iranian axis of the Middle East.
There were indeed incidents that marred the electoral process: identity card fraud attempts, isolated acts of corruption, and a few localized skirmishes were noted but quickly contained by the Lebanese army, largely deployed across the country. But in its vast majority, the population showed real enthusiasm for this post-Syrian era national consultation: some waited several hours to cast their vote. Others walked to their polling stations in their villages while impressive lines of cars caused monstrous traffic jams despite preventive measures adopted by the Ministry of Interior. The representative of the European Union’s election monitoring commission, José Ignacio Salafranca, praised the “generally good progress” of these elections. A sentiment widely shared by the UN security services.
However, they remain apprehensive about more serious incidents that might occur on the ground after the final results are announced. Incidents that could involve Hezbollah militants as had been the case in May 2008. Given the initial statements by some leaders of the Party of God for whom this election “changes nothing in the balance of forces,” an attack is feared that might indirectly remind of the need to always reckon with the influential pro-Iranian militia. All the more reason, as the March 14 leaders have asked their supporters, to have a “modest victory.”
